Jeremy Corbyn: Can he beat Labour in Islington North?

Jeremy Corbyn has held the Islington North seat for Labour since 1983, but can he beat the party he once led to retain it as an independent?

BY MICHAEL HAVIS

When it comes to Jeremy Corbyn, the big question in politics is this: will he or won’t he?

The former Labour leader was chucked out of his party by his successor, Keir Starmer, amid a furore over antisemitism. The accusation that antisemitism flourished in Corbyn’s Labour (and that the man himself holds such views) is well-documented and I don’t intend to interrogate it here. But suffice to say that Corbyn still has a dedicated following that regards any such accusation as false. What’s more, they still want him to have an active role in frontline politics.

So, a problem arises.

Does Corbyn seek re-election as an independent, running against a Labour candidate in a bid to retain his seat? If he does so, could that split the left-wing vote and hand the seat to someone else entirely? Does Labour take him back into the party, avoiding a split vote, but giving the Tories a big stick to beat them with? Or does “JC” step aside, and let the sun set on his parliamentary career?

Corbyn has been the MP for Islington North since 1983, and before that, the seat has returned Labour MPs at every election since the 1930s. The Labour majority at the last election was over 26,000 and it hasn’t dipped below 10,000 since 2005. On the face of it, it’s a very safe Labour seat, but Corbyn’s followers would contend that it is he himself, rather than the party, that is popular in the constituency.

With this in mind, I ventured down to Archway, part of the constituency, to see how local voters feel.

I expected voters here to feel pretty positive about JC, and they generally were. To be clear: the opposite is true in the country at large. YouGov polling has his popularity at 19%, with 59% disliking him. But Islington North has returned the man to Parliament 10 times; it stands to reason that people here will like him.

One voter, a recent retiree who’d worked in a hospital, spoke in glowing terms about him and said he was well liked by her clinical colleagues, who he often visited. Another, a young man who said he was Jewish, felt the accusations of antisemitism against Corbyn were confected, and exploited by Starmer to chuck him out of the party. These voters tended to think JC should seek re-election whether Labour want him or not.

Others were positive about Corbyn as a constituency MP, but critical about his time as Labour leader. One lady pointed to the colossal defeat he led the party to in 2019 as evidence of his leadership failings. I guess you can’t argue with results, though many will try, believe me. These voters tended to think (some, not all) that the incumbent should avoid splitting the vote.

One lady, though not a fervent supporter of Corbyn, said she nonetheless felt there should be space for people like him in Labour.

Only three people I spoke to were hostile to him, though none agreed to appear on camera. One of these said they weren’t much impressed by the Conservatives either, and added rather enigmatically that their views weren’t represented by any party. My guess, based on experience and vibes, was that he held a far-right conspiratorial worldview.

So, a mixed bag.

One thing that seemed to hold across the board was a lack of enthusiasm for the current iteration of Labour.

In any case, I’m inclined to think that Keir Starmer would welcome JC running against the party.

Corbyn remains very unpopular in the country at large, so much so that the Tories still try (rather desperately) to play up the historical association between Starmer and Corbyn — namely, that the former was in the latter’s shadow cabinet, and campaigned for him when he led the party. But Starmer has already booted his predecessor out of the party, and the two meeting as enemies in an electoral clash would only emphasise the clear blue water between them, blunting the impact of any Corbyn-themed Tory attacks.

If that costs Labour the seat, well, just look at the polls. One poll this past week had them on a 28% lead over the Conservatives. With numbers like these, Starmer can expect a three-figure majority. He can afford to lose one seat in Islington and have another critic in the Commons. It’s small price to pay.

And the reality is: Labour may just win it anyway. Looking at the last few general elections, nobody else is even close. Unless the other parties catch up quite dramatically, Labour could lose half their votes in the seat and still win with a comfortable majority. And it wouldn’t be the first time that an MP has attempted to run against their former party, imagining that they are personally popular enough to win, only to get a reality check at the ballot box.

It’s not an easy call. I can envision Corbyn running as an independent against Labour, and there being only a few hundred votes between them. Certainly, either he or Labour will take the seat. But at this point, my prediction is: Labour HOLD.