Labour MUST win here, but can they?
If 'Stevenage woman' holds the key to victory at the next election, Keir Starmer's Labour Party has a long way to go.
BY MICHAEL HAVIS
According to a Labour-affiliated think tank, the "Stevenage Woman is a mum, in her early 40s. She's got two kids, she works hard, she plays by the rules and she pays the bills.
"She mostly doesn't follow Westminster politics because she thinks the politicians are full of nonsense but she's fed up of politicians, above all, who overpromise and under-deliver."
The party needs the support of this archetypal "Stevenage woman" to win the next election, or so the argument goes. And looking at the seat, it's easy to see why. It was held by the Tories from its creation in 1983 until 1997 – in other words, the entire time they were in government. Then it was held by Labour from 1997 until 2010 – again, the entire time they were in government. Since then? You've probably guessed it. It's what we call a bellwether seat; the party that wins here is probably winning the wider election.
I was a reporter for a local newspaper covering this seat in the run up to the 2015 election, and I remember how hard the parties (particularly Labour) fought for the seat, sending down their big beasts to campaign there. I got to speak to a plethora of Labour luminaries, including Ed Miliband, Ed Balls, Harriet Harman, Andy Burnham, and *I think* Rachel Reeves, who's likely to be our next chancellor if the polls stay as they are. I also interviewed Michael Gove from the Conservative side.
And I remember being in the local leisure centre on election night, seeing the votes pile up for the Labour and Tory candidates. The Labour lot had high hopes, but it wasn't to be; the Tories won, as they did in the country at large, winning an unexpected majority.
Suffice to say, it's the sort of seat Labour can't take for granted if they want to form the next government. So I went down to talk to the "Stevenage woman" (and the Stevenage man too) to see how they're feeling this election year.
The first thing to say is how glad I was to find more women willing to talk on camera this time around; more than half of the total – the first time that's happened. I wonder if it's a London thing that it's been so tough the past couple of weeks?
The second thing to say is that Labour have a lot of work left to do, at least with the voters I spoke to. Everywhere I go, I hear the same thing about Labour and Keir Starmer: I don't know what their policies are, I don't know what they stand for, even from sympathetic voters. This week was no exception.
People are fed up with the Tories, make no mistake. But I only spoke to one person who was planning to vote Labour. She was a teacher, and said many teachers tended that way. But even she, when asked for her opinion on Keir Starmer, drew a blank.
One mum-of-two I spoke to, who seemed to be an eerily close fit for the archetypal Stevenage woman, was – though deeply disillusioned with the Conservatives – still unsure about Labour. She said she wanted an election campaign so that Labour would have to put their cards on the table and she could make her mind up.
Another woman, perhaps in her 50s or 60s, was sympathetic to the Tories and felt that the Prime Minister was doing the best he could in testing times.
A few people brought up immigration and small boats; these tended to be older voters. This is a subect where the Tories tend to do better, and the sort of thing they'd usually like to fight an election on. But there was no comfort here for the Conservatives; all of them were deeply disappointed by the government's record in this area.
One of these gentlemen said he might vote Reform. Another was very worried about the prospect of a Labour government, harking back to the chaos under Labour in the late 1970s; this man said he would either stay home, or vote Conservative. An elderly lady who was worried about small boats said she was still undecided on how to vote.
And, as always happens when I ask people about Labour, Gaza came up. A young man who claimed Jewish ancestry said that Labour's stance on the horror show in the Middle East had cost them his vote. He was planning to vote Liberal Democrat. That being said, he said he might change his mind if it looked to be a tight race.
Given their commanding lead in the polls, I was genuinely surprised not to hear more support for Labour on the streets. If Stevenage woman holds the key to the next election, Labour might want to communicate with her a little better.
But a vote for Labour is a vote for Labour, and the reality is: people are sick of this government, and many will vote to rid themselves of it. Some others who've supported the Tories in the past will stay home, or take their vote elsewhere. In terms of the result, it doesn't matter if people vote Labour unenthusiastically, or if they withhold their vote from the Conservatives reluctantly. The outcome is the same: Labour win.
As it stands, I don't expect a huge turnout in Stevenage, and I expect it'll be closer than the polls suggest. But nonetheless, my guess is: Labour GAIN.